Sunday, January 03, 2010

Wars & Rumors of War




Obama got an agreement from Israel not to attack Iran before the end of 2009.
For that promise Israel got nothing from Obama other than more pressure to
give up Jerusalem and the Mountains of Israel to the Muslim terrorist
organizations of Fatah and Hamas. Now the length of that promise is past,
and Obama’s diplomatic outreach to Iran is an embarrassing proven failure. 

An Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities would probably be on three locations.
Isfahan is where Iran produces uranium hexafluoride gas. Natanz is where the
gas is enriched in at least 4000 centrifuges. They would also have to attack
Arak, which is where a heavy water research reactor, will soon come on line
that is fully capable of producing weapons-grade plutonium. Israel may attack
other sites that it suspects to be part of a nuclear weapons program, depending
upon the intelligence, which Israel has such as centrifuge fabrication sites.
However, those three sites are well known as target objectives. Some may
wonder if Israel really has the capability on a single mission to effectively strike
Natanz, Isfahan, Arak, and possibly other sites. However, the attack on the
al-Kibar facility, which required traversing a maximum of Syrian air space, with
Syria having the latest model Russian air defenses, says they can get the
mission accomplished. 

Israel is capable of carrying out these attacks unilaterally. Its F-16 and F-15
aircraft, equipped with extra fuel tanks and refueled with tanker aircraft near
the beginning and end of their flight plans, have the range to reach the targets,
deliver their payloads in the face of Iranian air defenses, and return to their
bases. The munitions necessary to take out the targets are currently in Israel’s
inventory in sufficient numbers. These 5000 pound equivalent high-energy
explosives, GPS-guided weapons are extremely accurate and can be launched
from attacking aircraft fifteen kilometers from their target. Israel also has a
laser-guided version of these bombs that is more accurate than the GPS, which
would require Special Forces ground units for targeting. This was the method
used in the attack on the al-Kibar facility in Syria. 

Natanz is the only one of the likely targets that is largely underground, sheltered
by up to seventy feet of earth and reinforced concrete. The bunker buster type
bombs in the IAF inventory can penetrate such a depth and possibly collapse
the entire structure. This is accomplished by successive hits on the same
location of the crater of the previous hit. Both GPS guided and laser guided
munitions can do this with proven effectiveness. Three hits would be required
and four would certainly destroy the Natanz facility. 

The most likely reason Turkey recently canceled an annual trilateral exercise
involving Israel was to make absolutely clear to Israel the opposition of Turkey
to such a strike on Iran. However, there are other possible flight plans that
would not have to violate Turkish air space. Overflight of Iraq, whose airspace
is under U.S. control, would also be diplomatically awkward for Israel. It would
be essential for Israel to have ID codes. Without the friend foe ID codes,
American air defenses present a much greater problem than other possible
flight plans. If Israel is given the ID codes that would likely be the best flight
plan. 

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s very open intent to wipe Israel off the map
must be taken seriously. Israel has a genuine existential threat. Israel sees the
stakes as very high. Netanyahu’s most recent UN General Assembly speech
made clear the existential nature of the very open threats of Iran. Netanyahu
made clear, that after the Jewish Holocaust from Hitler, the Jewish people they
will never again allow another at the hands of Ahmadinejad. Iran’s sponsorship
of Hezbollah, Fatah, Hamas and other Islamic terrorist groups in the region
underscores the reality of the existential threat Israel MUST deal with. With
such real existential threat, the United Nations united against Israel, becomes
irrelevant. 

Israel understands that no conceivable Israeli strike could completely eliminate
the nuclear threat posed by Iran. Israel also understands that an attack might
only intensify longer-term risks as Iran rebuilds more covertly.  

Israel's 1981 Osirak attack gained two crucial decades during which Operation
Desert Storm effectively disarmed Iraq, and Operation Iraqi Freedom finished
that threat from Iraq. In the Six Day War in 1967 Israel attacked only after a
long period of procrastination. In 1967, Washington was disengaged. The same
disengagement from the Carter and Reagan administrations left Israel compelled
to preempt and act unilaterally. As the world witnessed in the 1967 war, the
Osirak attack, and the recent destruction of the Syrian nuclear facility, when the
US Administration is disengaged, Israel will, and must, preempt. Obama's failed
diplomacy, and the disengaged attitude of the Muslim in the Whitehouse, leaves
Israel with the situation it had in the Six Days War, that it MUST preempt, or be
annihilated.  

One should not forget that Iran is a Russian military client state. Russia contends
that effective sanctions that might reduce the tension and delay an Israeli attack
would also drive Iran out of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). Russia
also contends that an Iranian withdrawal from the NPT would be considered a
cause to go to war with Iran, with actions far more devastating than deterring Iran's
nuclear capability.  

Such a mission, which Israel may now believe to be essential, must have the
element of surprise. Israel would also need to be strengthening its operational
security in a very low-key, long-term manner. Syria has so many scud missiles
with VX nerve gas that Israel must consider. Syria has mutual defense ties with
Iran. This is what may cause the almost simultaneous fulfillment of Isaiah 17:1
and global thermonuclear war. Having a Muslim in the Whitehouse at this
present time may be the greatest threat to world peace of all history, and the
irony of Obama with just 7 days in office, getting the Nobel Peace Prize, seems
more astonishing than ever. 

Isa 17:1  The burden of Damascus. Behold, Damascus is taken away from being
a city, and it shall be a ruinous heap.

Amos 1:6  Thus saith the LORD; For three transgressions of Gaza, and for
four, I will not turn away the punishment thereof; because they carried away
captive the whole captivity, to deliver them up to Edom:

Amos 1:7  But I will send a fire on the wall of Gaza, which shall devour the
palaces thereof:

Joel 3:9-10  Proclaim ye this among the Gentiles; Prepare war, wake up the mighty
men, let all the men of war draw near; let them come up: Beat your plowshares into
swords, and your pruninghooks into spears: let the weak say, I am strong.

Mat 24:6  And ye shall hear of wars and rumours of wars: see that ye be not
troubled: for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet.

Mark 13:7  And when ye shall hear of wars and rumours of wars, be ye not
troubled: for such things must needs be; but the end shall not be yet. 

I would strongly encourage you to listen to these 2 audio files to give clear
understanding of these perilous times in which we now live.
http://gjigt-radio.com/podcast/audio/WhatDayISThatDay-Radio.mp3

AND
Pray for the Peace of Jerusalem. Pray Psalm 83 every day. Only be very strong
and of good courage. Stay IN the Word.

From Chittim, Isa 23:1,

Shalom & Simcha,
Jim Searcy

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